Inflation Trends — Tanzania Mainland
Headline annual inflation accelerated to 4.0% in April 2026, up from 3.2% in March 2026 and 3.2% in April 2025. The primary driver was a sharp rise in transport costs (+9.2% annually) reflecting fuel price pass-through from geopolitical pressures in the Middle East. Core inflation also rose meaningfully to 3.1% from 2.2%, signalling broadening price pressures beyond volatile components.
Inflation by Main Category — April 2026
| Main Group | Weight (%) | MoM Apr-25 (%) | MoM Mar-26 (%) | MoM Apr-26 (%) | Annual Apr-25 (%) | Annual Mar-26 (%) | Annual Apr-26 (%) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages | 28.2 | 0.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.7 | ↑ Up |
| Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco | 1.9 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | ↑ Up |
| Clothing & Footwear | 10.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | ↑ Up |
| Housing, Water, Electricity & Gas | 15.1 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 1.7 | ↑ Up |
| Furnishings & Household Equipment | 7.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.6 | ↑ Up |
| Health | 2.5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.6 | ↑ Up |
| Transport | 14.1 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 9.2 | 🔴 Spike |
| Information & Communication | 5.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | → Stable |
| Recreation, Sports & Culture | 1.6 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.7 | → Low |
| Education Services | 2.0 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.6 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 2.6 | ↑ Up |
| Restaurants & Accommodation | 6.6 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.8 | ↓ Eased |
| Insurance & Financial Services | 2.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | ↓ Low |
| Personal Care & Miscellaneous | 2.1 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 3.0 | 3.3 | 3.5 | ↑ Rising |
| ALL ITEMS (Headline) | 100.0 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 4.0 | ↑ Up |
📌 Analyst Note: Fuel Price Pass-Through is the Dominant Driver
The sharp jump in headline inflation from 3.2% to 4.0% in a single month is primarily a supply shock from global energy markets. With crude oil (Brent) hitting USD 120.42/barrel in April 2026, domestic pump prices surged, transmitting directly to transport (+5.2% month-on-month) and indirectly to food through higher logistics costs. Government fuel subsidies are expected to provide partial relief. Monitoring the geopolitical situation in the Middle East is critical for Tanzania's near-term inflation outlook.
NCPI December 2025 — Annual Review
Tanzania's annual headline inflation for 2025 averaged 3.3%, modestly above the 3.1% recorded in 2024. The full year was characterised by stable but gradually rising price pressures, with food inflation surging to 6.4% while non-food and core inflation actually declined. December 2025 headline inflation closed at 3.6%.
NCPI December 2025 — All Groups
| Main Group | Weight | Dec 2024 | Nov 2025 | Dec 2025 | 1-Month Change | 12-Month Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages | 28.2 | 124.27 | 129.98 | 132.56 | 2.0% | 6.7% |
| Alcoholic Beverages & Tobacco | 1.9 | 110.33 | 113.67 | 114.08 | 0.4% | 3.4% |
| Clothing & Footwear | 10.8 | 113.17 | 115.26 | 115.46 | 0.2% | 2.0% |
| Housing, Water, Electricity & Gas | 15.1 | 115.59 | 117.70 | 118.27 | 0.5% | 2.3% |
| Furnishings & Household Equipment | 7.9 | 114.38 | 117.61 | 117.81 | 0.2% | 3.0% |
| Health | 2.5 | 108.43 | 109.70 | 109.79 | 0.1% | 1.3% |
| Transport | 14.1 | 118.37 | 121.50 | 123.19 | 1.4% | 4.1% |
| Information & Communication | 5.4 | 106.16 | 106.49 | 106.70 | 0.2% | 0.5% |
| Recreation, Sport & Culture | 1.6 | 110.54 | 110.89 | 110.82 | -0.1% | 0.3% |
| Education Services | 2.0 | 108.84 | 112.01 | 112.01 | 0.0% | 2.9% |
| Restaurants & Accommodation | 6.6 | 116.39 | 117.49 | 117.48 | 0.0% | 0.9% |
| Insurance & Financial Services | 2.1 | 101.92 | 102.27 | 102.34 | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Personal Care & Miscellaneous | 2.1 | 116.64 | 118.40 | 118.09 | -0.3% | 1.2% |
| ALL ITEMS INDEX | 100.0 | 116.87 | 120.01 | 121.11 | 0.9% | 3.6% |
| Selected Supplementary Indices | ||||||
| Core Index | 73.9 | 114.45 | 116.77 | 117.26 | 0.4% | 2.5% |
| Non-Core Index | 26.1 | 123.73 | 129.21 | 132.04 | 2.2% | 6.7% |
| Energy, Fuel & Utilities Index | 5.7 | 125.25 | 129.33 | 131.02 | 1.3% | 4.6% |
| Services Index | 37.2 | 111.81 | 113.49 | 114.03 | 0.5% | 2.0% |
| Goods Index | 62.8 | 119.86 | 123.87 | 125.31 | 1.2% | 4.5% |
Monetary Policy & Money Supply
The Bank of Tanzania's Monetary Policy Committee held the Central Bank Rate (CBR) at 5.75% for Q2 2026. The MPC also narrowed the CBR corridor from 200 to 150 basis points to strengthen monetary policy transmission. Extended broad money supply (M3) grew 22% year-on-year in April 2026, driven primarily by strong private sector credit growth.
Annual Growth of Credit to Select Economic Activities (%)
| Sector | Apr-25 | Jun-25 | Sep-25 | Jan-26 | Feb-26 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | Trend (Annual %) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade | 14.4 | 21.3 | 24.8 | 50.0 | 48.7 | 43.3 | 44.2 | |
| Transport & Communication | 23.8 | 25.7 | 17.4 | 34.2 | 39.4 | 39.5 | 39.7 | |
| Mining & Quarrying | -10.5 | 20.8 | 32.4 | 91.4 | 103.9 | 78.4 | 39.7 | |
| Agriculture | 29.8 | 30.2 | 27.6 | 27.9 | 31.9 | 28.5 | 30.5 | |
| Building & Construction | 39.2 | 25.7 | 15.7 | 29.5 | 28.1 | 21.8 | 20.6 | |
| Personal Loans (MSMEs) | 14.7 | 13.7 | 14.7 | 17.8 | 18.9 | 20.7 | 17.7 | |
| Hotels & Restaurants | 7.0 | 22.5 | 16.3 | 1.6 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 6.0 | |
| Manufacturing | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.1 | -7.7 | -8.5 | -4.9 | 4.2 |
Interest Rates
Interest rates remained broadly stable in April 2026, with modest upward adjustments in lending and deposit rates. The overall lending rate rose marginally to 15.33% while the spread between one-year lending and deposit rates narrowed to 5.50 percentage points.
| Rate Type | Apr-25 | Dec-25 | Jan-26 | Feb-26 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Savings Deposit Rate | 2.89 | 3.02 | 2.94 | 2.98 | 2.89 | 2.91 | → |
| Overall Lending Rate | 15.16 | 15.24 | 15.10 | 15.11 | 15.11 | 15.33 | ↑ |
| Short-Term Lending Rate (≤1yr) | 16.15 | 15.46 | 15.49 | 15.41 | 15.45 | 15.31 | ↓ |
| Negotiated Lending Rate | 12.88 | 12.38 | 12.25 | 12.19 | 12.21 | 12.56 | ↑ |
| Overall Time Deposit Rate | 7.82 | 8.36 | 8.33 | 8.32 | 8.33 | 8.54 | ↑ |
| 12-Month Deposit Rate | 9.27 | 9.58 | 9.70 | 9.82 | 9.60 | 9.81 | ↑ |
| Negotiated Deposit Rate | 10.52 | 11.66 | 11.74 | 11.48 | 11.57 | 11.37 | ↓ |
| Short-Term Interest Spread | 6.88 | 5.88 | 5.79 | 5.59 | 5.85 | 5.50 | ↓ Narrowing |
Financial Markets & Exchange Rate
Government securities markets remained active with strong investor demand. Treasury bill auctions were oversubscribed with bids of TZS 859.5 billion against a TZS 429.8 billion tender. The Tanzanian Shilling strengthened, appreciating 2.7% year-on-year to an average of TZS 2,612.46 per USD in April 2026.
Government Budget Operations
Revenue collection remained strong in March 2026, with the Government collecting TZS 3,836.9 billion — 8.5% above the monthly target. Income tax led performance, exceeding its target by 17.2%. Total expenditure reached TZS 4,273.4 billion, with TZS 1,728.1 billion directed toward development projects.
| Item | Budget 2025/26 | Jul–Mar Estimate | Jul–Mar Actual | March Estimate | March Actual |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue (incl. LGAs) | 40,466,131 | 29,776,224 | 31,406,077 | 3,534,728 | 3,836,870 |
| Tax Revenue | 32,176,000 | 23,799,789 | 26,037,562 | 2,994,936 | 3,317,522 |
| → Taxes on Imports | 11,562,966 | 8,698,522 | 9,210,997 | 941,106 | 1,093,168 |
| → Income Taxes | 11,367,877 | 8,371,958 | 10,313,985 | 1,320,902 | 1,547,795 |
| → VAT & Excise (Local) | 7,016,471 | 4,980,549 | 4,809,820 | 538,795 | 494,551 |
| Non-Tax Revenue | 4,681,734 | 4,699,745 | 4,145,266 | 392,430 | 385,755 |
| Expenditure (TZS Millions) | |||||
| Total Expenditure | 48,774,989 | 36,263,699 | 35,334,852 | 4,190,993 | 4,273,412 |
| → Wages & Salaries | 10,917,467 | 9,789,839 | 9,842,550 | 1,108,942 | 1,128,371 |
| → Interest Payments | 6,493,715 | 4,986,600 | 4,149,292 | 636,797 | 379,055 |
| → Development Expenditure | 17,493,733 | 13,360,470 | 12,406,364 | 1,606,289 | 1,728,072 |
| Overall Balance (after grants) | -6,401,158 | -5,779,536 | -3,216,702 | -586,082 | -244,075 |
All figures in TZS Millions unless otherwise stated. Sources: Ministry of Finance, BOT. Note: Actual figures for 2026 are provisional.
Debt Developments
Tanzania's total national debt stood at USD 51,067.2 million at end-April 2026, a 0.5% increase from March 2026. External debt (70.4% of total) was USD 35,949.6 million, dominated by multilateral creditors. Domestic debt reached TZS 39,335.8 billion, driven by increased overdraft utilisation.
| Use of Funds | Apr-25 (%) | Mar-26 (%) | Apr-26 (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Transport & Telecommunication | 21.5 | 22.3 | 22.4 |
| Balance of Payments & Budget Support | 20.7 | 22.3 | 22.3 |
| Social Welfare & Education | 20.2 | 19.2 | 19.3 |
| Energy & Mining | 12.9 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| Real Estate & Construction | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Finance & Insurance | 4.2 | 3.6 | 3.6 |
| Agriculture | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| Industries | 3.5 | 3.7 | 3.7 |
| Tourism | 1.8 | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Other | 5.5 | 4.8 | 4.5 |
| Total | 100.0 | 100.0 | 100.0 |
External Sector Performance & Trade
Tanzania's exports grew 13.5% to USD 18,876.7 million in the year ending April 2026, driven by record gold exports and tourism receipts. The current account deficit widened to USD 2,651.8 million as robust import growth in capital goods outpaced export gains. Foreign exchange reserves remained comfortable at USD 5,722.5 million (4.4 months of imports).
Current Account Summary (USD Millions)
| Item | Apr-25 | Mar-26 | Apr-26 | Year 2024 | Year 2025 | Year 2026p | Chg % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goods Account (net) | -461.1 | -596.6 | -963.3 | -5,979.9 | -4,553.6 | -5,353.5 | 17.6% |
| → Exports of Goods | 649.9 | 815.0 | 788.0 | 7,815.8 | 9,682.7 | 11,215.0 | +15.8% |
| → Imports of Goods | 1,111.0 | 1,411.6 | 1,751.3 | 13,795.7 | 14,236.3 | 16,568.5 | +16.4% |
| Services Account (net) | 218.6 | 266.0 | 237.3 | 4,151.4 | 3,908.0 | 4,285.6 | +9.7% |
| → Receipts (Travel/Tourism) | 493.8 | 551.9 | 525.8 | 6,466.0 | 6,942.3 | 7,661.7 | +10.4% |
| Primary Income (net) | -223.7 | -135.0 | -132.6 | -1,608.4 | -1,998.4 | -1,852.0 | -7.3% |
| Secondary Income (net) | 28.9 | 21.2 | 20.2 | 667.8 | 531.9 | 268.1 | -49.6% |
| Current Account Balance | -437.3 | -444.4 | -838.4 | -2,769.1 | -2,112.1 | -2,651.8 | +25.6% |
Key Export Commodities (USD Millions — Year to April)
| Commodity | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026p | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 Gold | 2,696.1 | 2,852.4 | 3,133.3 | 3,821.2 | 5,268.9 | +37.9% |
| ✈️ Travel (Tourism) | 2,527.8 | 3,373.8 | 3,903.1 | 4,006.3 | 4,385.3 | +9.5% |
| 🚢 Transportation | 1,872.0 | 2,333.4 | 2,353.4 | 2,419.3 | 2,834.8 | +17.2% |
| 🏭 Manufactured Goods | 1,250.0 | 1,417.4 | 1,359.6 | 1,389.9 | 1,897.2 | +36.5% |
| 🚬 Tobacco | 147.5 | 178.2 | 409.6 | 490.8 | 600.0 | +22.2% |
| 🌰 Cashewnuts | 226.9 | 206.4 | 541.7 | 398.8 | 517.4 | +29.7% |
| ☕ Coffee | 165.1 | 186.7 | 224.7 | 334.3 | 420.0 | +25.6% |
| TOTAL EXPORTS | 7,079.7 | 7,433.8 | 8,237.3 | 9,715.6 | 11,412.2 | +17.5% |
Economic Performance in Zanzibar
Zanzibar's headline inflation rose to 5.0% in April 2026, driven primarily by food prices (+9.9%) and rising transport costs. The current account improved 18.5% to a surplus of USD 842 million, supported by strong tourism receipts. Tourist arrivals grew 21.7% to 944,056 visitors.
| Main Group | Weight | MoM Apr-25 | MoM Mar-26 | MoM Apr-26 | Annual Apr-25 | Annual Mar-26 | Annual Apr-26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food & Non-Alcoholic Beverages | 41.9 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 1.6 | 4.7 | 9.9 | 9.9 |
| Clothing & Footwear | 6.3 | 1.7 | 0.2 | -0.2 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| Housing, Water, Electricity & Gas | 25.8 | 0.0 | -0.2 | 0.8 | 5.5 | -0.4 | -0.4 |
| Transport | 9.1 | 0.5 | -0.1 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 2.7 |
| Education | 1.6 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 |
| ALL ITEMS (Headline) | 100.0 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 5.0 |
Global Economic Context
The global economy entered Q2 2026 with resilience but mounting risks. The IMF revised global growth down to 3.1% for 2026 (from 3.3% in January), while the World Bank forecasts just 2.5%. Crude oil surged to USD 103.91/barrel average in April 2026 (peak: USD 117.80), transmitting inflationary pressures to commodity-importing economies like Tanzania.
| Month | Crude Oil Avg (USD/bbl) | Crude Brent (USD/bbl) | Gold (USD/troy oz) | DAP Fertilizer (USD/t) | Urea (USD/t) | Palm Oil (USD/kg) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr-25 | 65.91 | 67.75 | 3,217.64 | 635.00 | 386.88 | 994.37 |
| Jun-25 | 69.15 | 71.45 | 3,352.66 | 715.38 | 420.50 | 935.39 |
| Sep-25 | 66.46 | 67.95 | 3,667.68 | 780.63 | 461.13 | 1,036.74 |
| Dec-25 | 60.88 | 62.72 | 4,309.23 | 627.50 | 392.50 | 980.12 |
| Jan-26 | 63.65 | 66.77 | 4,752.75 | 619.20 | 415.40 | 1,004.66 |
| Feb-26 | 68.01 | 71.11 | 5,019.97 | 626.50 | 472.00 | 1,039.47 |
| Mar-26 | 95.58 | 103.69 | 4,855.54 | 658.25 | 725.63 | 1,108.61 |
| Apr-26 | 103.91 | 120.42 | 4,721.42 | 725.25 | 856.88 | 1,148.04 |
Economic Outlook & Key Risks
Tanzania's economic fundamentals remain broadly sound, supported by strong export performance, robust credit growth, and a resilient shilling. However, the sudden acceleration in inflation due to global energy shocks poses near-term challenges for households and businesses.
🔭 TICGL Forward Assessment
Tanzania is navigating a complex external shock environment while domestic fundamentals hold firm. The CBR is appropriately held at 5.75%, and the corridor narrowing signals a more hawkish posture if energy-driven inflation persists. The key watchpoints for the remainder of 2026 are: (1) global oil price trajectory as Middle East tensions evolve, (2) the size of the 2026 harvest and its impact on food prices, (3) the pace of private sector credit growth and its distributional effects, and (4) the currency stability maintained through gold export receipts. Tanzania's GDP growth trajectory at 6.0% (2025 constant prices) remains a regional standout and a compelling case for investment.